Metaculus and Bridgewater Associates are partnering again on a unique forecasting competition. Starting January 12, forecasters of all experience levels can share their predictions across a variety of questions. The most accurate forecasters will be eligible for $30,000 in prizes and potential opportunities with Bridgewater. Last competition, multiple offers were made to the top forecasters ...
We're again hosting Scott Alexander’s annual forecasting contest! And this year we're expanding the prize pool from $2,500 to $10,000. Make your predictions in the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest before January 31st on questions like: Will the US government release additional Epstein documents in 2025? Will a commercially available AI be able to order you a Starbucks delivery in 2025? Will an ...
Vox's Future Perfect spotlights long-term thinking and evidence-based strategies for improving human and animal welfare. Each year, its writers forecast the coming year and assess their previous predictions. This year, Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. On January 1st, they will publish their predictions on the questions below. You can join them ...
Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while competing for $5,000 in prizes. New this season: the Community Prediction will go head-to-head against Nathan Young, a seasoned forecaster and one of the field's most vocal advocates. Beat Nathan and an additional $2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.
Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance.
An annual forecasting tradition What started as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later Astral Codex Ten has evolved into a vibrant forecasting community tradition. This contest offers both seasoned and aspiring forecasters a chance to refine their skills while tracking current events through a predictive lens. For 2025, Scott Alexander has once again ...
FutureEval measures the ability of AI agents to predict future outcomes, in Science, Technology, Health, Geopolitics, AI itself, and more. Forecasting is a key skill in many real-world tasks, enabling planning, risk assessment, and decision-making. Learn more Metaculus Platform 3.2M+ predictions, 12 years, 22k questions
Forecasting can help ground our thinking about the effects of the new administration, quantifying which hopes and fears deserve our attention—and which are merely fantasy. The POTUS Predictions Tournament aims to bring greater clarity to these discussions by translating competing narratives into measurable forecasts.
Each year, Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews, Kelsey Piper, and Sigal Samuel forecast the year to come and evaluate their previous predictions. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect on their 2025 forecasts. On January 1st, they'll publish their forecasts.
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